February 24, 2022 destroyed the dream of a “European house”, caused a humanitarian catastrophe and further strained the international order. Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine does indeed mark a turning point. It is forcing the European Union to fundamentally reflect on its geopolitical positions and perspectives.

In the fourth month of the war, the initially impressive unity of the European Union has long since begun to erode. The immediate shock of Russian aggression has only temporarily brought the member states closer together. After the first rapid decisions on humanitarian aid, logistical support and several rounds of sanctions, as well as an unexpected willingness to take in refugees, the diverging interests are becoming increasingly apparent.

The wrangling over the latest package of sanctions and, in particular, the EU Commission’s proposals for an oil embargo has not only made it clear that the EU states are economically dependent on Russia to very different degrees, which also limits the scope for using pressure in different ways. Traditional political divergences over the relationship with Russia have also resurfaced. They have once again cast doubt on the theory that Vladimir Putin’s campaign against the pro-European neighbor is involuntarily helping the EU to achieve a new sense of community.

The longer the war lasts, the more difficult it will be to prove unity and the more urgent the strategic repositioning will become. How radically, how quickly should economic ties with Putin’s Russia be cut? How far can military aid for Ukraine go without ending up in a war against Russia, a nuclear power? Should further EU and NATO memberships be accelerated or postponed? How can relations with Russia be made tolerable – and above all secure – in the future?

After all, the Ukraine war has not put an end to the EU states’ differing ideas about the Union’s values and the long-term goals of integration. The internal commonality that is needed to meet external challenges is therefore not a given.

How the EU is equipped to stand its ground in this existential test will be the subject of discussion at the WDR Europaforum on June 2, 2022.

The motto is:

What next? Europe in the new geopolitical reality